Futures Market Contest
Final Results
Spring 1996
May 1, 1996
The contest began on March 20, 1996. All contestants started with $10,000.
A round-trip commission of $50 is charged on each contract upon exit of
position. Each contestant can manage two portfolios. Contestants are
limited to only one type of contract at a time in each portfolio.
More than one contract of each type is allowed at a time, but all contracts
must be for the same expiration date. Maintenance margin is the same as the
initial margin. Stops are not allowed. Contest lasts six weeks.
A negative portfolio value indicates a contestant who has been wiped out.
In real practice, such an investor would have to come up with the
additional funds beyond the initial $10,000. In this contest a contestant
who wipes out can no longer trade.
Value of portfolio during game Standing
------------------------------------- % Change --------
Contestant Highest Lowest Last in contest now last
-------------- ---------- --------- ---------- --------- --- ----
Janke #1 $32,775.00 $6,575.00 $31,950.00 219.500% 1 1
McGill #2 18,725.00 5,625.00 17,900.00 79.000 2 2
Walsh #2 11,600.00 8,240.00 11,200.00 12.000 3 10
Walsh #1 11,560.00 8,240.00 11,160.00 11.600 4 9
Stroud #1 12,587.50 8,762.50 10,600.00 6.000 5 4
Janke #2 11,380.00 5,530.00 10,580.00 5.800 6 8
Watzel #1 19,575.00 6,400.00 8,775.00 -12.250 7 3
Stroud #2 10,000.00 7,550.00 8,600.00 -14.000 8 6
Erickson #2 19,275.00 5,200.00 8,425.00 -15.750 9 5
Heckenlaible #2 11,250.00 5,750.00 7,500.00 -25.000 10 7
Miller #1 13,780.00 6,520.00 7,120.00 -28.800 11 12
Watzel #2 10,400.00 7,000.00 7,080.00 -29.200 12 11
Schneider #1 11,800.00 4,300.00 5,200.00 -48.000 13 13
Granum #1 21,325.00 4,200.00 5,000.00 -50.000 14 14
Heckenlaible #1 11,500.00 3,950.00 4,700.00 -53.000 15 15
Schneider #2 13,093.75 3,056.25 4,212.50 -57.875 16 16
McGill #1 12,730.00 2,330.00 2,330.00 -76.700 17 17
Granum #2* 10,000.00 350.00 350.00 -96.500 18 18
Erickson #1** 10,325.00 -2,625.00 -2,625.00 -126.250 19 19
Average: $12,164.55 21.645%
Std. dev.: 6,853.28 68.533
* Can no longer trade; equity is insufficient to cover minimum margin on
any contract.
**Wiped out; can no longer trade.
Commentary on Contest Results
Janke #1 was originally long Eurodollars, but the account equity sagged a
bit. Then Janke #1 was short the S&P 500 contract when the stock market
was falling and long recently when the stock market was rising.
McGill #2 lost heavily in German marks but then came back strongly by being
long the S&P 500 contract.
Walsh #2 was long gold throughout the contest.
Erickson #1 was long the S&P 500 when he should have been short.
