Futures Market Contest
Final Results
Fall 1994
December 7, 1994
(Twelve weeks)
FINAL REPORT
The contest began on September 14, 1994. All contestants started with
$10,000. A round-trip commission of $30 is charged on each contract upon
exit of position. Contestants are limited to only one type of contract at
a time. A contestant may commit no more than 50% of the account's equity
to margin at a time. More than one contract is allowed at a time, but
all contracts must be for the same expiration date. Maintenance margin is
the same as initial margin. Stops are not allowed.
A negative portfolio value indicates a contestant who has been wiped out.
In real practice, such an investor would have to come up with the
additional funds beyond the initial $10,000. In this contest a contestant
who wipes out can no longer trade.
Value of portfolio during game Stand.
------------------------------ % Change -------
Contestant Highest Lowest Last in contest now last
----------------------- ---------- -------- --------- --------- --- ---
Janke #2 Jim 50,845.00 8,875.00 50,545.00 405.450 1 1
Chan #2 Sok Cheng 24,662.50 7,090.00 23,582.50 135.825 2 3
Kerrouch Hicham 30,750.00 7,750.00 23,000.00 130.000 3 2
Janke #1 Jim 13,490.00 4,207.50 8,307.50 -16.925 4 7
Holmes/Bubba Jim 13,120.00 6,430.00 6,580.00 -34.200 5 6
Nash #1 Dan 13,150.00 6,328.75 6,328.75 -36.713 6 4
Avery #1 Steve 13,200.00 6,226.25 6,226.25 -37.738 7 5
Nash #2 Dan 10,690.00 5,930.00 5,930.00 -40.700 8 8
Tschetter #2 Jeff 10,000.00 5,670.00 5,670.00 -43.300 9 11
Tschetter #1 Jeff 17,307.50 4,790.00 5,440.00 -45.600 10 12
Chan #1 Sok Cheng 14,540.00 4,990.00 4,990.00 -50.100 11 9
Holmes/Hubba Jim 10,000.00 3,070.00 3,895.00 -61.050 12 10
Avery #2 Steve 13,570.00 2,115.00 2,115.00 -78.850 13 13
Hetfield Lars 13,175.00 1,530.00 1,530.00 -84.700 14 14
Average: 13,327.27 33.273
Std. dev.: 13,480.93 134.809
Janke #2 takes first place. The portfolio benefitted from the rise in
interest rates, with a particularly strong trend the last few weeks.
Janke #2 was short Sep 95 Eurodollars.
Chan #2 was short silver, which seemed to go into free fall the last few
weeks.
Kerrouch was also short Eurodollars, but Dec 96 contracts. The market
was very sensitive to month of contract. The market is expecting the
sharp rise in short-term interest rates to slow the economy and stop
the rise in and even reduce interest rates further out.
The difference in performance between Janke #2 and Kerrouch illustrates how
the parts of the yield curve can be affected distinctly differently by
the market's expectations of rising interest rates.
Avery #2 was long silver. The sharp fall in silver futures which boosted
Chan #2 portfolio almost wiped out Avery #2.
